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EUR/USD: Rebound From The 1.0580 Low Keep Pressure On The Upside (17-Jan-2017    at   12:14:44 pm)

Rebound from the 1.0580 low keep pressure on the upside and see scope for retest of the 1.0653 and 1.0685 highs. Clearance will see bulls reasserting and shift focus to the 1.0800 level. Support starts at 1.0565 then the 1.0511/00 area. Only break of the latter will weaken and expose lower support at 1.0454. [PL]

Daily Technical Outlook And Review (17-Jan-2017    at   11:15:51 am)

Going into the early hours of yesterday's London segment a wave of offers flooded the market, resulting in price breaking beneath the psychological band 1.06 and attacking December's opening level at 1.0590. From there on price entered into somewhat of a lackluster phase, likely due to both a relatively light

EUR/USD Prepared For Bullish ABC Zigzag Pattern (17-Jan-2017    at   11:15:23 am)

The EUR/USD bounced at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave B vs A and it seems to be completing an ABC (green) zigzag within a wave 2 correction (brown). The wave 2 (brown) is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1.

Market Morning Briefing (17-Jan-2017    at   08:54:41 am)

The Pound (1.2060) has managed to move up slightly and has intra-day Supports at 1.2020-05 now, but remains vulnerable to fresh decline while below 1.2100, waiting for Teresa May's speech today where she is expected to call for a "hard-Brexit", meaning the UK will not try to retain "partial" membership

Foreign Exchange Market Commentary (17-Jan-2017    at   08:53:48 am)

The EUR/USD pair settled around 1.0600 this Monday, with the financial scene dominated by renewed fears about a hard Brexit, after an UK´s newspaper reported that PM Theresa May will go for it in her speech this Tuesday, according to “sources familiar with the prime minister’s thinking.” The dollar gapped

GOLD - Targets Further Upside Pressure On Price Extension (17-Jan-2017    at   07:57:32 am)

GOLD The commodity remains biased to the upside following its price extension the past week. This development leaves more strength to the upside in the new week. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,190.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,180.00 level. Further down,

Daily Technical Analysis (16-Jan-2017    at   04:17:52 pm)

The EURUSD had a bullish momentum last week topped at 1.0684 but traded a little bit lower earlier today hit 1.0602. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As you can see on my H1 chart below, price is moving inside a bullish channel suggests a valid bullish phase after

EUR/USD Bullish POC Zone Above 1.0560 (16-Jan-2017    at   04:13:06 pm)

The EUR/USD has turned bearish around 1.0660 where it was sold heavily as expected. The pair is currently ranging but as long as interim key support at 1.0500 is intact it might spike again. This time bulls might have a control as we see a confluence at 1.0560-80 (ABCD, L5,

GBPUSD Trading In Final Stages Of A Reversal, 1.2000 Could Be The Next Reversal Zone (16-Jan-2017    at   04:03:51 pm)

Another turn down from 1.2430 the past week suggests that corrective decline from 1.2770 December high can be unfolding as a double zig-zag correction. That is a complex pattern, made out of two zig-zags, that can in the near term look for support near the 1.2000 psychological level. Generally speaking,

EUR/USD Retreats To 1.06 Mark (16-Jan-2017    at   03:53:39 pm)

As forecasted before, the common European currency has begun a retreat against the US Dollar, as on Monday morning the currency exchange rate was near the 1.06 level. That is due to the fact that the pair is being forced lower by the 55-day SMA, which is located at 1.0639.

GBP/USD Attempts To Recover From Weekend's Drop (16-Jan-2017    at   03:52:19 pm)

Although the British currency managed to edge higher against the US Dollar on Friday, it still failed to maintain trade above the 1.22 level. Nevertheless, the 1.2150 threshold was preserved, but the Cable opened with a hard bearish gap today, now barely managing to hold above 1.20. Political factors, namely

USD/JPY Keeps Struggling To Edge Higher (16-Jan-2017    at   03:49:31 pm)

On Friday the US Dollar continued to weaken against the Japanese Yen, following its two-week bearish trend, however, losses were insignificant. The given pair now has sufficient room for a leg up, with the weekly PP and the two-week down-trend forming immediate resistance only around 115.50, meaning the USD/JPY could

Gold Continues To Surge (16-Jan-2017    at   03:46:57 pm)

On Monday morning the yellow metal was in its sixth consecutive trading session of gains, as the metal traded near the 1,205 mark and was set to score even more gains. The bullion faced no resistance up to the level of 1,211.87, where the first weekly resistance level was located.

Forex Technical Analysis (16-Jan-2017    at   03:11:47 pm)

EUR/USD My outlook here is positive above 1.0540 support, for a break through 1.0680 area, towards 1.0870 major hurdle. Minor intraday support lies at 1.0600.

AUDUSD – Risk Of Deeper Pullback On Repeated Failure At Daily Cloud Base / 200SMA (16-Jan-2017    at   03:00:01 pm)

The pair eases from fresh high at 0.7516, posted last Thursday, following repeated failure to firmly break above pivots at 0.7490/96 (daily cloud base converged 100/200 SMA’s), which guards. Another strong barriers at 0.7523/40 (14 Dec high daily cloud top). Risk of deeper pullback is rising, as daily

USDJPY Could Extend Weakness To 112.85, As Double-Top Continues To Weigh (16-Jan-2017    at   02:58:54 pm)

The pair remains in red and probes below cracked 114.22 support (Fibo 76.4% of 112.85/118.65 upleg). Double-top at 118.65/59 continues to weigh, with additional pressure coming on strong bearish close of last week and formation of daily Tenkan-sen Kijun-sen bear cross. Fresh bearish acceleration could extend to 112.85 (05

Cable Is Down 1.6% On Monday's Gap-Lower Opening, Hard Brexit Fears Maintain Strong Pressure (16-Jan-2017    at   02:57:50 pm)

Cable opened with some 200-pips gap-lower on Monday, on renewed fears of hard Brexit. The pair dipped below early October's flash crash lows and completed 1.2035/1.2315 corrective phase. Today's fall turns focus lower as daily techs are now in full bearish setup.

EURUSD Comes Under Pressure On Weaker Pound, Risks Deeper Pullback (16-Jan-2017    at   02:56:28 pm)

The Euro is holding around 1.0600 handle after weak start of the week. The single currency was dragged by weaker Sterling and repeated failure at 1.0668 Fibo barrier, but is so far holding above first pivot at 1.0597 (rising 5SMA). Falling 55SMA caps for now today's action at 1.0634. Weakening

USD/JPY: Pressure Returning To The Downside From The Fri's 115.45 High (16-Jan-2017    at   12:54:48 pm)

Pressure returning to the downside from the Fri's 115.45 high and risk seen for break of the 113.76 low to extend the choppy down-leg from 118.60 high. Below the 113.76 low will see further decline to the 113.13/112.88 area. Resistance now at 115.45 then 116.05. [PL]

Weekly Technical Outlook And Review (16-Jan-2017    at   11:22:32 am)

As is shown on the weekly chart, the EUR was seen flexing its financial muscle somewhat last week with price tapping highs of 1.0684. Should we see a similar picture this week, it’s likely that the unit will shake hands with the long-term weekly trendline resistance extended from the low

Volatility Elevated Ahead Of May's Brexit Speech, Pound Recovers (17-Jan-2017    at   12:51:42 pm)

Financial markets are anxiously awaiting the U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May's speech later today where she will lay out a detailed divorce plan from the EU.A lot of reports were leaked since Sunday on what to expect her to say, and the most interesting part is that she has no

Dollar Correction Continues. May To Decide On Fate Of Sterling (17-Jan-2017    at   12:50:31 pm)

Yesterday, the losses of the dollar were modest, despite unconventional, protectionist comments from president elect Trump. This morning, the US currency remains in the defensive as markets are counting down for a speech on the Brexit strategy of UK Prime Minister May. A deterioration of global risk sentiment might weigh

GBP Has Been Under Pressure Versus The Other Major Currencies (17-Jan-2017    at   12:02:18 pm)

The main event will be the UK Prime Minister Theresa May's speech on Brexit. Details from the speech were leaked yesterday, indicating a ‘hard Brexit'. This will continue to add pressure on GBP vis-à-vis the other major currencies. Furthermore, UK inflation data is also due to be released today and

AUD/USD: Aussie Trading Higher In The Asian Session (17-Jan-2017    at   12:00:14 pm)

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7461, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7441. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7495, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7509.

EUR/USD: Euro Trading On A Stronger Footing, Ahead Of Euro-Zone's ZEW Survey Data (17-Jan-2017    at   11:59:21 am)

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0591, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0557. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0644, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0663.

GBP/USD: BoE's Carney Warns Of Hit To Britain's Economic Growth Amid Rising Inflation (17-Jan-2017    at   11:58:08 am)

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2008, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1946. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2108, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2146.

USD/JPY: IMF Raises Growth Forecast For Japan To 0.8% For 2017 (17-Jan-2017    at   11:56:57 am)

The pair is expected to find support at 113.66, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 113.29. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 114.38, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.73.

USD/CHF: Swiss Franc Trading On A Stronger Footing This Morning (17-Jan-2017    at   11:55:45 am)

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0077, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0056. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0127, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0156.

USD/CAD: Canada's Existing Home Sales Rebounded In December (17-Jan-2017    at   11:54:39 am)

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3120, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3088. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3187, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3222.

Asian Market Update: Asahi Poll Shows Japan Cabinet Approval Rating At 54%, +4ppts (17-Jan-2017    at   11:20:37 am)

Asia equity indices trading mixed, with Australia and Japan underperforming and Hong Kong leading. In Australia, energy and mining names weighed down the broader index, while Nikkei225 was hurt by firmer Yen. In Hong Kong, property developers and financials stood out among gainers. In FX, USD/JPY fell to its lowest

European Open Briefing (17-Jan-2017    at   10:57:19 am)

The Pound is recovering slightly ahead of the speech by UK PM May. GBP/USD started the day around 1.2017 in Asia and rallied to a high of 1.2080 later in the session. The market is expecting a hard Brexit announcement from May, so this is already partly priced in. We

USDJPY Moderating As The Markets Brace For Volatility (17-Jan-2017    at   10:54:53 am)

The Dollar-Yen's recent stretch of gains is looking somewhat under threat moving ahead but the oscillating nature of the USDJPY'sdescent gives traders some solid range-trading opportunities. Indeed, the pair should be making a surge higher prior to resuming its overall downtrend which is currently resulting from an uptick in a

Post Pound Pounding (17-Jan-2017    at   08:00:20 am)

The pound remains center stage, but after yesterday's early APAC mayhem, predictably the remainder of Monday's trading session was subdued. Moreover, outside of a quick look below 1.2000 at the London open, trader's were content to peruse the UK print editorials that were full of so-called leaks of what the

EUR/GBP Gap: When Is A Gap Filled? (17-Jan-2017    at   07:54:40 am)

An obvious level that was cleanly respected and gave us multiple chances to get long. Back to the present and the weekend saw EUR/GBP gap higher yet again. The magnetic effect of the gap getting closed has continued to pull at price since Monday morning, but this is where I

Yen Steady on Mixed Manufacturing Data (16-Jan-2017    at   08:48:01 pm)

USD/JPY is almost unchanged in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading just above the 114 line. On the release front, Japanese manufacturing reports were mixed. Core Machinery Orders were dismal, with a sharp decline of 5.1%. However, Preliminary Machine Tool Orders rebounded and posted a strong gain of

Pound Eyes "Flash Crash" Levels, But Will It Stay? (16-Jan-2017    at   06:34:02 pm)

This is a busy holiday shortened week for capital markets. Today, U.S banks will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day. On Tuesday, U.K's PM May is expected to call on the country's populous to reject the hostility of the Brexit referendum in a speech that being billed as

Canadian Dollar Subdued as US Markets Closed (16-Jan-2017    at   06:32:53 pm)

The Canadian dollar has posted slight gains in the Monday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3140. On the release front, US markets are closed for Martin Luther King Day. There are no US or Canadian releases on the schedule, so traders can expect limited movement from USD/CAD during the

Sterling Slides on Theresa Effect (16-Jan-2017    at   06:31:53 pm)

The heightened hard Brexit fears have triggered a steep Sterling selloff during the early trading hours of Monday with the GBPUSD tumbling to a fresh three-month low at $1.1983. Although the cause behind the renewed selling pressures on the Pound was attributed to reports of Theresa May standing firm and

GBP Plummets Againt USD Amid Hard Brexit Speculation (16-Jan-2017    at   04:11:11 pm)

The pound kicked off the market session down two figures and trading against the greenback below 1.20 for the first time in 32 years. The pair has since bounced back above this level. On Tuesday, Theresa May will give a speech that some believe will be used to signal a

EUR/USD – Euro Hugs 1.06 As US Markets Closed For Holiday (16-Jan-2017    at   04:08:04 pm)

EUR/USD has dipped slightly in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at the 1.06 line. On the release front, it’s a very quiet start to the week. The only event on the calendar was Eurozone Trade Balance. The surplus widened to EUR 22.7 billion in November, but this

DAX 6 Month Outlook 2016 H2 (18-Aug-2016    at   07:12:22 pm)

DAX 6 Month Outlook 2016 H2

What impact has Brexit had on Germany?

It's still too early to determine what the economic impact of Brexit will be on Germany and the eurozone on the whole for that matter both in the near-term and beyond. On the one hand, the U.K.

AUD/USD Australian Dollar 6 Month Outlook 2016 2H (02-Aug-2016    at   08:28:41 pm)

The RBA seems to be little concerned by Brexit and believes it's far too soon to pass judgment on the effect of the 'leave' Europe June vote on the U.K economy, implying that a weaker sterling (down -11% since June 23) could temper the economic fallout. The RBA's Governor Stevens

WTI Crude Oil A Year Ahead - Trends And Expectations 2016 (24-Dec-2015    at   04:45:54 pm)

The second half of 2014 saw a sharp drop in the price of WTI Crude Oil, which had traded at $105 a barrel in July. By January 1, 2015, the price of crude had fallen by almost 50%, to $54.45 a barrel. Oil prices rebounded in April, reaching a high

DAX Year Ahead – Trends And Expectations 2016 (24-Dec-2015    at   04:11:58 pm)

It has been another testing year for the German economy but once again it has shown the kind of strong resilience that it has become synonymous with throughout the global financial and eurozone debt crises. The first half of the year in the eurozone was dominated by questions over whether

British Pound Year Ahead - Brexit To Dominate 2016 (22-Dec-2015    at   05:49:01 pm)

This has been something of a turnaround year for the UK in which unemployment has fallen back to pre-financial crisis levels, wage growth has accelerated and falling energy and food prices have supported a strong consumer driven recovery. Growth has cooled a little in 2015 after peaking at 3.2% in the

Gold for Bear Market? (13-Oct-2015    at   06:23:40 pm)

A "bear market" is frequently defined as a decline of at least 20% in the S&P 500 index. Trouble is that by the time pundits provide their seal of approval that we are indeed in a bear market, the index has already lost 20% from its peak. Many of them

Euro Area Outlook for 2015: Impact of Broad-Based QE (17-Jan-2015    at   08:46:02 am)

The expected ECB QE programme will support economic activity through a number of channels and hence it strengthens our view of a stronger recovery. A very important part of a large scale QE programme would be the signal that the ECB is committed to its mandate as this supports inflation expectations. Government

When Will the Bank of England Hike Rates? (16-Aug-2014    at   01:33:48 pm)

In the first report of a two-part series on the outlook for Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy, we discuss the timing of the expected first rate hike since 2007. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has explicitly pledged not to hike rates until spare capacity is more fully absorbed. Not

Growth in China Appears to Be Stabilizing (19-Jul-2014    at   01:05:10 pm)

The year-over-year rate of real GDP growth in China edged up to 7.5 percent in Q2 from 7.4 percent in Q1. Modest relaxation in credit restrictions in recent months led to some stabilization in investment spending growth. We look for the rate of real GDP growth in China to edge

FX Forecast Update: Negative Rates and Liquidity Tools to Weaken the Euro (14-Jun-2014    at   08:24:43 am)

The ECB delivered more easing than expected at its rate meeting in June by cutting both the refi and deposit rates by 10bp, the latter into negative territory, and introduced a four-year targeted LTRO (TLTRO). While it remains uncertain how much excess liquidity will be boosted by the new LTRO,

AUD/USD - 2013 In Review (02-Jan-2014    at   07:25:12 am)

The Australian dollar is known for its strong volatility, and taking traders on roller coaster rides, and the currency certainly didn't disappoint in 2013. The Aussie started the year close to the 1.04 level and looked great in early January, climbing just short of the 1.06 line. The currency lost about

USD/CAD - 2013 In Review (02-Jan-2014    at   07:23:26 am)

The Canadian dollar looked sharp as we began 2013, but struggled badly late in the year, as the currency lost about five cents against the US dollar in Q4. The Canadian currency began the year close to the parity level, but tumbled to three-year lows in December, as USD/CAD broke

USD/JPY - 2013 In Review (26-Dec-2013    at   07:31:59 am)

The Bank of Japan continued its radical monetary program in 2013, and the yen responded with sharp losses against the US dollar, as the slumping Japanese currency finds itself trading at five-year lows. The BOJ's monetary platform consists of increasing its monetary base and asset purchase (QE) programs. The BOJ

GBP/USD - 2013 In Review (26-Dec-2013    at   07:30:08 am)

The Bank of England revised its growth forecast for 2013 to 1.6%, up from 1.4% in a previous forecast. The BOE is predicting growth in 2014 of 2.8%. Inflation remains well above the central bank's target of 2%. The forecast for 2013 is a level of 2.6%. This is expected

EUR/USD - 2013 in Review (25-Dec-2013    at   06:46:53 pm)

The ECB is expecting better news in 2014, with the Eurozone economy expected to post growth of 1%. Inflation is projected to remain week, with an estimate of 1.3%. So we can expect interest rates to remain low for the foreseeable future, as ECB head Mario Draghi has stated at

Global Currencies Forecast: 2014 (10-Dec-2013    at   05:21:04 pm)

More than five years after the onset of the Great Recession, consistent global growth remains elusive, prompting central banks to stick with artificially low interest rates while pumping an unprecedented infusion of cash into the financial system. As they search for new ways to stimulate liquidity to augment the stimulus measures

The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy Part III: An Analysis of ... (26-Oct-2013    at   08:25:22 am)

In part three of our four part series we explore the long-run trends in federal debt and the annual budget deficits that lead to the accumulation of federal debt through the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) current forecast horizon of 2088. We begin with a brief history of federal deficits and

The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy Part II: An Analysis of ... (10-Oct-2013    at   08:08:54 pm)

In its latest Long-Term Budget Outlook, the Congressional Budget Office concludes that the future path of federal spending is "unsustainable." In part two of our four-part series on the unsustainable path of federal fiscal policy, we explore the ongoing trends in federal spending and focus on the key drivers of

The Unsustainable Path of Federal Fiscal Policy Part I: Federal Revenue Projections and ... (08-Oct-2013    at   09:38:43 am)

Recently, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its latest Long-Term Budget Outlook, which this year again highlights the fact that federal fiscal policy continues along an unsustainable path. In this first of a series of reports on the unsustainable path of federal fiscal policy, we provide an analysis and discussion

Life After Ben: Choosing the Next Fed Chair (28-Aug-2013    at   09:08:33 pm)

The biggest question on monetary policy for the years ahead is, who will be the next Federal Reserve chairman? More importantly, who is best qualified to normalize policy without disrupting the current pace of economic growth and financial stability? The clear choice is Chairman Ben Bernanke, who nursed an ailing

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