Elliott Wave Analysis: Silver Trading In A Bullish Impulse (28-Mar-2017 at 07:26:25 pm)
On the hourly chart of Silver, we see commodity undergoing a nice impulsive sequence to the upside, with price specifically trading in sub-wave v of three. That said, current sub-wave v may extend its gains towards the 161.8 or even higher to the 261.8 Fibonacci projected ratio, before making a new reversal to the downside. After sub-wave v of three finds a top, a minimum three wave correction may follow into the following wave 4.
Brent Oil Returned above 200 SMA (28-Mar-2017 at 06:49:22 pm)
Brent oil returned above 200 SMA ($50.80), following several unsuccessful attempts to clearly break below it, with one of downticks also briefly probing below psychological $50.00 support. Overall structure remains weak and sees risk of renewed attempts lower and final break below 200SMA and $50 support.
GBP/JPY: Market Sentiment Edgy; Brexit Article 50 Trigger Looms (28-Mar-2017 at 06:01:48 pm)
Yesterday saw the US dollar manage to bounce back a little shortly after the New York open, while US stock indices filled their weekend gaps as they recovered from heavy losses. Perceived safe-haven gold eased off its highs but still closed higher on the day. Today, US index futures are currently pointing to a slightly weaker open, with European markets struggling to hold onto their earlier gains.
USDCHF Intraday Elliott Wave View (28-Mar-2017 at 05:59:42 pm)
USDCHF decline from 3/7 (1.0170) high to 3/22 (0.9879) low could be viewed as a 5 swing move that we have labelled as Elliott wave ((a)). Bounce to 0.9960 was a three move and completed Elliott wave ((b)). Pair has since dropped to a new low below 0.9879 confirming the view that wave ((b)) ended at 0.9960. Decline from 0.9960 - 0.9809 was again in 5 swings and completed wave (i) of ((c)). Pair has already done 3 wave bounce to 0.9868 which could be all of wave (ii) and pair can now resume the decline in wave (iii).
DAX Bulls Test Near Term Major Resistance (28-Mar-2017 at 05:17:41 pm)
The DAX index has been oscillated in the range between 11900 and 12100 since early March. Monday, we saw the release of German IFO expectations, current assessment and business climate figures for March, all better than expectations and the previous figures. The outperforming IFO figures provide DAX some support.
EURUSD: Hesitates, Faces Pullback Threats (28-Mar-2017 at 04:31:30 pm)
EURUSD: With the pair now seen threatening a move lower, it looks to extend corrective pullback. On the upside, resistance comes in at 1.0900 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.0950 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1000 level where a break will expose the 1.1050 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.0800 level where a violation will aim at the 1.0750 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.0700 level. All in all, EURUSD faces pullback threats on price failure.
FTSE Attempted to Fill Monday's Gap (28-Mar-2017 at 04:28:48 pm)
FTSE attempted to fill Monday's gap on extension of bounce from fresh low at 7179, but rally was so far short-lived, failing to benefit more on bullish signal from yesterday's Hammer. Pound's correction lower provided temporary relief to the index, but prevailing tone on daily chart remains negative and keeps the downside at risk.
Dow is Consolidating in 20500 Zone (28-Mar-2017 at 04:27:04 pm)
Dow is consolidating in 20500 zone on Tuesday after extension of pullback from 21160 peak hit fresh low at 20355 on Monday. Rising 55SMA contained dip, offering solid support at 20393 today. Yesterday's strong downside rejection that left long-tailed Doji candle, signals indecision that may result in extended consolidation. Upside attempts were so far capped by falling and thickening hourly cloud that prevents near-term studies of further strengthening.
USD/CAD Bullish Cup With Handle Pattern (28-Mar-2017 at 03:28:16 pm)
The USD/CAD has reversed from the bottom, making bullish cup with handle pattern (purple square) with two POC zones that could reject the price towards 1.3420 and 1.3460. POC1 (61.8, EMA89, ATR pivot, handle bottom) could reject the price on the first retracement into the zone, while POC2 1.3325-40 ( D L4, 88.6, trend line, ATR low) is deeper retracement, final intraday support zone and could also reject the price if we see a retracement into the zone. targets for this USD/CAD bullish move are 1.3420 and 1.3460 on a subsequent breakout.
Gold Very Short-Term Bearish Consolidation, Silver Pushing Above 18.00, Crude Oil Heading Downwards. (28-Mar-2017 at 03:21:40 pm)
Gold continues to head lower. The momentum seems back to bullish. Strong resistance is located at 1263 (27/02/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1224.10 (16/03/2017 low). Expected to show further strengthening. In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).
EUR/CHF Buying Pressures Are Too Weak, EUR/JPY Continued Bearish Pressures, EUR/GBP Riding Downtrend Channel. (28-Mar-2017 at 03:19:20 pm)
EUR/CHF's is moving up and down. The medium-term pattern suggests us to see continued bearish pressures towards key support that can be found at 1.0623 (24/06/2016 low). In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).
Forex Technical Analysis (28-Mar-2017 at 03:05:28 pm)
EUR/USD Yesterday's peak at 1.0904 was followed by a minor reversal and the intraday bias is slightly negative, for a tight test of 1.0820 support area. The latter is still a base for another leg upwards, to 1.0940. Crucial on the downside is 1.0760 and only a violation of that low will signal a major reversal and a bearish bias for 1.0600.
Consumer Confidence Strengthens Further in March (28-Mar-2017 at 08:56:17 pm)
Consumer confidence once again significantly topped expectations. The overall index surged 9.5 points in March and data for February were also revised 1.3 points higher. The surge in the Consumer Confidence Index reported since the election is hard to dismiss as merely a post-election bounce. Overall consumer confidence has risen 24.8 points since October and coincides with improvement in other consumer surveys, as well as surveys of manufacturers, small businesses, homebuilders and corporate CFOs.
Gold Steady as US Consumer Confidence Soars to 16-year High (28-Mar-2017 at 08:31:27 pm)
Gold continues to have a quiet week. In Tuesday's North American trade, gold is trading at $1255.06 per ounce. On the release front, CB Consumer Confidence rocketed to 125.5, crushing the estimate of 113.9. There was also good news on the manufacturing front, as the Richmond Manufacturing Index improved to 22, well above the forecast of 16 points.
National Home Prices Edge Higher to Start 2017 (28-Mar-2017 at 08:07:35 pm)
National home prices continue to edge higher as tight supplies and continued uptrend in home sales push prices higher. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 5.9 percent over the past 12 months and the 20-City and 10-City indices are up 5.7 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively. On a regional basis, Seattle, Portland and Denver continue to see the strongest year-to-year price gains.
Pound Dips as US Consumer Confidence Soars (28-Mar-2017 at 08:03:28 pm)
GBP/USD has edged lower in Tuesday's North American session. Currently ,GBP/USD is trading at 1.2530. On the release front, it's another quiet day, with no UK events on the schedule. In the US, CB Consumer Confidence rocketed to 125.5, crushing the estimate of 113.9. There was also good news on the manufacturing front, as the Richmond Manufacturing Index improved to 22, well above the forecast of 16 points.
USD Struggles as Reflation Trade Fails to Resume (28-Mar-2017 at 07:59:56 pm)
USD traders still haven't found a clear guide in the wake of the debacle of the US healthcare vote on Friday. Yesterday evening, the dollar decline slowed as US equities found their composure. However, it is too early for investors to engage further in the reflation trade. Uncertainty and a further (modest) slide in core yields weighs on USD/JPY. After a strong performance yesterday, the euro didn't go anywhere today. EUR/USD is locked in the mid 1.08 area.
Turbulence in Store for Trump and the US? (28-Mar-2017 at 07:29:04 pm)
The US Dollar has weakened as President Donald Trump has failed to launch his second major policy change after being thwarted by his own party. What he termed as the demolition of Obamacare has become an embarrassment for the President and his supporters. Final Q4 GDP growth figures are expected for the US this week, too, which are anticipated to be much the same as the previous assessments, although you never know in these unprecedented times. The US Dollar is at levels against the Euro not seen since a brief spike at the end of 2016, hovering around the $1.08 mark.
Dollar Crossroads (28-Mar-2017 at 06:37:26 pm)
In a perfect world, every breakout is clean and steady but on Monday the US dollar fell below some critical levels but bounced instead of wilting. We look at what's coming next. Yellen's speech about labout markets due at 12:50 ET (17:50 London). After closing both EURCAD and EURAUD trades at a profit, one of the traded will be re-opened later this evening. Which one will it be? Find out in the Premium video due up shortly.
Markets Nurse Hangover from Trump Slump (28-Mar-2017 at 05:36:27 pm)
Global stocks regained some composure on Tuesday with most arenas' edging higher after investors re-evaluated if Trump's failure on healthcare reforms would negatively impact his ability to pass other key reforms in the future. Asian stocks marched into the green territory as participants remained cautiously optimistic over the proposed tax cuts and fiscal stimulus with the upside momentum elevating European equities.
Yen Quiet Ahead of Japanese Retail Sales (28-Mar-2017 at 05:14:41 pm)
The Japanese yen has edged higher in the Tuesday session. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 110.40. On the release front, today's highlight in the US is CB Consumer Confidence, which is expected to dip to 113.9 points. Japan will release Retail Sales, with the indicator expected to dip to 0.7%.
Markets Take a Risk Pause, Brexit Divorce Next (28-Mar-2017 at 04:23:16 pm)
The GOP's healthcare failure has not derailed market sentiment about fiscal stimulus it has temporarily modified it. For now, with the pendulum of U.S political momentum having swayed in favor of 'gridlock' continues to hamper the "big" dollars natural progress and pressure both bond yields and equity prices.
USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Under Pressure At 1.34 On Trump Concerns (28-Mar-2017 at 04:11:34 pm)
USD/CAD has posted small gains on Tuesday, continuing the upward trend which marked the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at the 1.34 level. On the release front, it's another quiet day. In the US, today's highlight is CB Consumer Confidence, which is expected to dip to 113.9 points. The sole event in Canada is a speech from BoC Governor Stephen Poloz in Oshawa.
USD And Indices Bounce As Technical Support Holds (28-Mar-2017 at 03:42:52 pm)
The failure to generate support for the bill despite delivering a last ditch ultimatum to lawmakers is seen as potentially being a sign of weakness and even political naivety from Trump which has cast doubt on whether he'll face similar problems when it comes to his other policies. Ultimately, the more than 15% rally in equity markets, along with the rise in the US dollar and Treasury yields, since Trump's victory has been built on the belief that he will deliver and if doubts are in fact creeping in, those gains will start to disappear.
(RBNZ) Official Cash Rate Reduced to 1.75 Percent (23-Mar-2017 at 06:46:05 am)
The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75 percent. Macroeconomic indicators in advanced economies have been positive over the past two months. However, major challenges remain with on-going surplus capacity in the global economy and extensive geo-political uncertainty.
(RBA) Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board (21-Mar-2017 at 07:14:45 am)
Members commenced their discussion of international developments by noting that forecasts by private sector analysts for growth in the major economies in 2017 had been revised upwards since mid 2016. Growth in global industrial production and merchandise trade had picked up further and survey measures of business conditions had remained at high levels. Headline inflation in the major advanced economies had increased noticeably in recent months, largely as a result of higher oil prices, to be close to most central banks' targets. However, core inflation had generally remained low.
(BOE) Bank Rate Held at 0.25%, Government Bond Purchases at £435bn and Corporate Bond Purchases at up to £10bn (16-Mar-2017 at 05:07:17 pm)
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 15 March 2017, the Committee voted by a majority of 8-1 to maintain Bank Rate at 0.25%. The Committee voted unanimously to continue with the programme of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, totalling up to £10 billion. The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion.
(SNB) Swiss National Bank Leaves Expansionary Monetary Policy Unchanged (16-Mar-2017 at 01:45:40 pm)
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB is to remain at -0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between -1.25% and -0.25%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration. The SNB's expansionary monetary policy is aimed at stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. The Swiss franc is still significantly overvalued. The negative interest rate and the SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market are intended to make Swiss franc investments less attractive, thereby easing pressure on the currency.
(BOJ) Statement on Monetary Policy - March 16, 2017 (16-Mar-2017 at 09:01:43 am)
Japan's economy has continued its moderate recovery trend. Overseas economies have continued to grow at a moderate pace, although emerging economies remain sluggish in part. In this situation, exports have picked up. On the domestic demand side, business fixed investment has been on a moderate increasing trend as corporate profits have improved. Private consumption has been resilient against the background of steady improvement in the employment and income situation. Meanwhile, housing investment and public investment have been more or less flat. Reflecting these moderate increases in demand both at home and abroad and the progress in inventory adjustments, industrial production has picked up. Financial conditions are highly accommodative. On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been about 0 percent. Inflation expectations have remained in a weakening phase.
(FED) FOMC Statement Release Date: March 15, 2017 (15-Mar-2017 at 11:04:44 pm)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in February indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate was little changed in recent months. Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment appears to have firmed somewhat. Inflation has increased in recent quarters, moving close to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective; excluding energy and food prices, inflation was little changed and continued to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance
(ECB) Introductory Statement to the Press Conference (09-Mar-2017 at 06:48:19 pm)
Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We continue to expect them to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases. Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, we confirm that we will continue to make purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at the current monthly pace of €80 billion until the end of this month and that, from April 2017, our net asset purchases are intended to continue at a monthly pace of €60 billion until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. The net purchases will be made alongside reinvestments of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP.
(ECB) Monetary Policy Decisions (09-Mar-2017 at 05:50:02 pm)
At today's meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.
(RBA) Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision (07-Mar-2017 at 11:36:17 am)
Conditions in the global economy have continued to improve over recent months. Business and consumer confidence have both picked up. Above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. In China, growth is being supported by higher spending on infrastructure and property construction. This composition of growth and the rapid increase in borrowing mean that the medium-term risks to Chinese growth remain. The improvement in the global economy has contributed to higher commodity prices, which are providing a significant boost to Australia's national income
(BOC) Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent (02-Mar-2017 at 03:15:00 am)
The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent. CPI inflation rose to 2.1 per cent in January, reflecting higher energy prices due in part to carbon pricing measures introduced in two provinces. The Bank is looking through these effects, as their impact on inflation will be temporary. The Bank's three measures of core inflation, taken together, continue to point to material excess capacity in the economy.
(RBNZ) Official Cash Rate Reduced to 1.75 Percent (10-Feb-2017 at 03:17:47 am)
The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75 percent. The recovery in commodity prices and more positive business and consumer sentiment in advanced economies have improved the global outlook. However, major challenges remain with on-going surplus capacity in the global economy and rising geo-political uncertainty.
(RBA) Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision (08-Feb-2017 at 03:16:44 am)
Conditions in the global economy have improved over recent months. Business and consumer confidence have both picked up. Above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. In China, growth was stronger over the second half of 2016, supported by higher spending on infrastructure and property construction. This composition of growth and the rapid increase in borrowing mean that the medium-term risks to Chinese growth remain. The improvement in the global economy has contributed to higher commodity prices, which are providing a boost to Australia's national income.