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USD/JPY: Stocks Plunge as Gold, Yen Rally in "Risk off" Trade (24-Feb-2017    at   05:50:44 pm)

The signs were there for a stock market plunge, which is exactly what has happened today. Gold, a perceived safe-haven asset, had been rising strongly of late despite the dollar's strength and the equity market rally. The Japanese yen, likewise another safe haven asset, has been firm and today it

EUR/USD Attempts To Break Resistance (24-Feb-2017    at   04:20:12 pm)

The Euro continued to book gains against the US Dollar during the early hours of Friday's trading session, as the currency exchange rate attempted to break through the resistance put up by the 55-day SMA, which was located at 1.0593. The pair already attempted to move higher during Thursday's trading.

GBP/USD: Correction Anticipated (24-Feb-2017    at   04:18:38 pm)

The Cable not only reached its target on Thursday, but even managed to close trade at the highest level in nearly three weeks. However, the reason for the substantial rally was not the Sterling's strength, but US Dollar's weakness. Consequently, a bearish correction could easily occur today, with the exchange

USD/JPY Attempts to reclaim 113.00 (24-Feb-2017    at   04:16:58 pm)

Lack of certainty concerning the US tax reforms triggered USD-selling, causing it to drop 69 pips against the Japanese Yen yesterday. Thursday's bearish development still does not change the overall picture, as the pair remains in its consolidation trend. The demand cluster just under the 112.00 mark represents the lower

Gold Breaks Out Of Triangle (24-Feb-2017    at   04:15:44 pm)

As forecasted and mentioned for the past week by the Dukascopy research team, the yellow metal has broken out of a triangle pattern and surged. The bullion has reached and even surpassed the 1,250 mark, about which speculations have been roaming around the markets for the past few months. On

AUDUSD - Uptrend Remains Intact For Potential Retest Of Key 0.7776 Barrier (24-Feb-2017    at   03:36:21 pm)

The pair posted new marginally higher high at 0.7739 and closed above 0.7700 barrier yesterday, signaling that uptrend from 0.7160 (ate Dec base) is still intact. Near-term consolidation is so far entrenched between 0.7700 and 0.7739, with scope existing for final push towards kay barrier at 0.7776 (08 Nov high).

USDJPY Remains Biased Lower, Break Below 112.60 Pivot To Threaten Base Of Rising Daily Cloud (24-Feb-2017    at   03:29:05 pm)

Strong two-day fall from double upside rejection at 113.75 cracked key near-term support at 112.60 (17 Feb former correction low) and is threatening for further downside. Bearishly aligned daily studies support scenario, with break below 112.60 to open 112.37 (Fibo 76.4% of 111.57/114.94 upleg) and expose key near-term supports at

GBPUSD Looks For Fresh Extension Higher, Broken 20SMA Now Acts As Strong Support (24-Feb-2017    at   03:25:36 pm)

Near-term focus has turned up after yesterday's strong rally that eventually broke above narrowing consolidation and signaled fresh direction. Long bullish daily candle that was left yesterday, underpins for fresh upside extension and break above pivots at 1.2567/80 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.2704/1.2345/09 Feb recovery high).

EURUSD - Pivots At 1.0590 Zone Under Pressure For Possible Extended Correction, Overall Bears ... (24-Feb-2017    at   03:22:57 pm)

Bounce from 1.04962 (22 Feb fresh six-weeks low) extends into third day and cracks pivotal barriers at 1.0590 zone (converged 10/55SMA's that are forming bear-cross), where corrective upleg should be ideally capped. We still favor fresh downside action after completion of corrective phase from 1.0496, as daily cloud twist on 28 Feb supports scenario.

Forex Technical Analysis (24-Feb-2017    at   03:03:51 pm)

EUR/USD The intraday bias is still positive, for a tight test below 1.0630 resistance area. The latter should cap the upside, for another downswing towards 1.0450. Crucial intraday low lies at 1.0535.

USDJPY Could Face Some Gains In The Next Few Days (24-Feb-2017    at   02:50:41 pm)

On the updated chart of USD/JPY, we can see a nice and strong bullish turn taking place from around the 111.60 level, where we labeled end of a complex correction. As such, recent recovery gives us an indication for a completed double zig-zag correction and a suggestion that higher levels

EUR/CAD Levels To Choose From (24-Feb-2017    at   10:47:36 am)

A quick look at the currency crosses (featured in the types of forex currency pairs post in the forex education section) today, with a look at EUR/CAD. First up on the daily chart you can see the higher time frame support zone that we currently have in play:

GBP/USD Breaks Triangle Pattern With Strong Wave-3 Momentum (24-Feb-2017    at   10:34:14 am)

The GBP/USD broke above resistance (dotted red) and picked up momentum as part of a wave 3 (grey). The wave 4 (grey) should typically not retrace deeper and beyond the 50% Fibonacci. The next higher high is probably part of wave 5 (grey) of wave 3 (purple) after which a

Daily Technical Outlook And Review (24-Feb-2017    at   09:32:37 am)

Beginning with the weekly timeframe this morning, we can see that the pair continues to hold its own against the dollar after connecting with the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.0515/weekly support area at 1.0333-1.0502. Although this weekly move was bolstered by a daily support at 1.0520, a nearby daily

Foreign Exchange Market Commentary (24-Feb-2017    at   08:59:09 am)

The greenback suffered a sharp setback this Thursday, amid comments from US Treasury Steven Mnuchin, who expressed his concerns about the high levels of US debt, while adding that new policies would have a limited impact on the economy during this 2017. Those betting for a "phenomenal" tax reform in

AUDUSD - Risk Points Higher On Trend Resumption (24-Feb-2017    at   07:39:19 am)

AUDUSD The pair continues to retain its upside pressure as it looks to resume its medium term uptrend. On the downside, support resides at the 0.7650 level where a breach will aim at the 0.7600 level. Below that level will set the stage for a run at the 0.7550

Gold Surges To Major $1250 Resistance As Uncertainty Prevails (24-Feb-2017    at   07:37:25 am)

Wednesday's release of minutes from the last FOMC meeting on January 31 – February 1 struck a slightly more hawkish tone as Fed members discussed the appropriateness of another rate hike 'fairly soon.' At the same time, however, concerns over the risks and uncertainties surrounding the Trump Administration's fiscal stimulus

Crude Stocks May Have Snapped Six-Week Build Streak (23-Feb-2017    at   06:19:06 pm)

Oil prices have bounced back after Wednesday's decline and are thus back higher on the week after Monday's rally. As before, I think oil prices are heading higher. The lack of a clear trend over the past several weeks has coincided with rising US crude oil inventories to new record

Crude OIL Intraday View (23-Feb-2017    at   04:03:02 pm)

Crude oil has been down strongly yesterday but current leg up from 53.36 looks like a new impulse so resumption of a bullish trend has to be considered. That said, we labeled end of a regular flat formation in wave 2 which means that bulls may continue now above 55.00 area.

AUDUSD – Near-Term Outlook Is Positive But Firm Break Above 0. ... (23-Feb-2017    at   03:04:18 pm)

Yesterday's fresh attempt above 0.7700 barrier was positive signal, as price continues to hold at the upper side of 0.7600/0.7700 congestion. Overnight's dip on weaker than expected Australian data was so far contained, with 0.7700 pivot being attacked again on bounce. Bullishly aligned near-term studies are supportive, along with daily

Trump's Address to Congress, BoC Policy Meeting, Key Data in Focus (25-Feb-2017    at   09:15:31 am)

In the US, all eyes will be on President Trump's address to a joint session of Congress. Markets will be looking for any specifics on tax reform and other policies. In Canada, we expect the BoC to take the sidelines amid gradually improving economic data. We also get a plethora of key

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary (25-Feb-2017    at   09:05:52 am)

During a light week of economic indicators, we received up-todate data on sales activity and pricing in the U.S. housing market. Following the first monthly contraction in five months in December, existing home sales rebounded 3.3 percent in January to a 5.69 million-unit rate, reaching the highest level in the

The Weekly Bottom Line (25-Feb-2017    at   08:36:39 am)

This week we got further signs that global economic growth continued to firm at the start of 2017. Despite elevated policy uncertainty, financial market volatility remains low, but it's unclear if this is a sign of market certainty or complacency about the economic outlook. Indeed, the global outlook is looking a

Markets Turn Focus Towards Trump Address to Congress (25-Feb-2017    at   08:28:17 am)

On the evening of Tuesday, February 28th, US President Trump is slated to give a major address to a joint session of Congress in lieu of the usual State of the Union address, as Former President Obama also did when he was newly-inaugurated. This first official congressional address by Trump

Week Ahead Dollar Mixed as Trump Pro-Growth Policies Remain Vague (25-Feb-2017    at   08:24:48 am)

The U.S. dollar is mixed against majors as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes pointed to an interest rate hike "fairly soon" but were contrasted with cautious comments from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that have reduced expectations of pro-growth policies being introduced in the short term. House Speaker Paul

Weekly Focus: Will We Finally Get Some Details on Trump's Tax Policy? (24-Feb-2017    at   08:05:50 pm)

Holding an EU/euro referendum would be difficult for Marine Le Pen without strong parliamentary backing. EUR periphery spread widening if Le pen wins but ECB set to stand ready to ease financial spillover. In FX markets, we would expect the EUR to weaken versus other major currencies and EUR/USD to settle 2-3

Higher Energy Prices Pushed Canadian Inflation above 2% in January (24-Feb-2017    at   08:01:59 pm)

Between base effects in the food and energy components, newly-introduced carbon pricing and other policy changes at the provincial level, there is a lot to digest in today's inflation report. Ultimately, while the headline reading came in well above market expectations and the Bank of Canada's forecast, the main driver

Rising Gasoline Prices Push Up Canadian Inflation in January (24-Feb-2017    at   07:58:22 pm)

As far as headline inflation is concerned, oil prices give and they take away. Having said that, the sharp rise in inflation is less than meets the eye, reflecting the turnaround in the price of energy from its nadir at the beginning of 2016. While the rebound is likely to

Gold Glimmers as Uncertainty Mounts (24-Feb-2017    at   06:18:56 pm)

The heightened political risks in the U.S and Europe have revived an appetite for safe-haven assets with Gold becoming an investor's popular choice. This metal remains firmly tilted to the upside on the daily charts and the rapidly fading expectations of a U.S interest rate increase in March has inspired

DAX Muted as Investors Looking for Cues (24-Feb-2017    at   04:52:12 pm)

The DAX Index is quiet in the Friday session, as the index is down by 0.30%. Currently, the DAX is trading at 11,920.90 points. On the release front, there are no eurozone economic indicator, so it could remain a quiet day. On Thursday, the DAX briefly pushed across the symbolic

Dow Winning Streak Under Threat On Friday (24-Feb-2017    at   04:32:13 pm)

The Dow's winning streak is set to be seriously tested on Friday, with US futures currently indicating that all three major indices will open around one third of a percentage point lower. In the absence of much economic data today and with the Fed taking the day off from public

Investors Turn Their Attention to Canada (24-Feb-2017    at   04:29:08 pm)

The main event of the day is Canada's CPI for January. The headline rate is expected to have ticked up to +1.6% yoy from +1.5% yoy the previous month, while no forecast is available yet for the core rate. The nation's Markit manufacturing PMI for the month showed that as

Gold Recovers As Uncertainty Rises (24-Feb-2017    at   04:28:24 pm)

The US dollar continued to retrace gains on Friday as investor confidence in the strength of the US economy continues to dwindle. This week's FOMC minutes suggest that the Fed is in no hurry to lift borrowing rates, while on the political front, investors are becoming increasingly impatient to know

Euro Listless Ahead Of US Housing, Consumer Confidence (24-Feb-2017    at   04:22:02 pm)

EUR/USD is showing limited movement in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.0580. On the release front, there are no eurozone events. In the US, the markets are forecasting mixed news from today’s key indicators. New Home Sales is expected to jump to 575 thousand, but UoM

USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Steady Ahead Of Canadian CPI (24-Feb-2017    at   04:21:05 pm)

USD/CAD is showing limited movement in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading just below the 1.31 line. On the release front, it’s a busy day on both sides of the border. Canada releases a host of inflation indicators, led by CPI. The markets are expected to post a

Australian Private CAPEX Drops More Than Expected In Q4 (24-Feb-2017    at   04:14:42 pm)

Australian business investment plunged more than anticipated in the final quarter of 2016, official data revealed on Wednesday. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, private capital expenditure dropped 2.1% to settle at $27.4B in Q4 on a seasonally adjusted basis, whilst analysts predicted the data to post a moderate

US Jobless Claims Climb 6,000 Last Week (24-Feb-2017    at   04:13:42 pm)

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased slightly more than expected last week, though the four-week average dropped 4,000 to 241,000, weakest level since 1973, official figures revealed on Thursday. Last week's results were driven by growing economy and tight labour market, which is likely to prompt companies

European Market Update: Gold Inches Up To 3-Month Highs (24-Feb-2017    at   04:07:05 pm)

EUR/USD was hovering around the 1.06 area and lifted by the French political situation of the upcoming elections. A new French alliance aided the currency after France Green Party candidate Jadot withdrawal from presidential race and threw his support to Socialist candidate Hamon

French Government Bonds, In Particular Bonds With Maturities Less Than 10 Years (24-Feb-2017    at   02:47:02 pm)

Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that he will explore issuing ultra-long debt, i.e. debt maturing in more than 30 years, in line with previous comments that he will 'take a look at everything' when it comes to maturities. With interest rates expected to be historically low for a

USD Softens As Markets Ponder Fiscal Stimulus (24-Feb-2017    at   02:39:41 pm)

Yesterday, the euro decline halted as tensions on France eased. At the same time, the dollar lost ground as US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the implementation of fiscal reforms will take time. Today, USD softness might persist as there are no important eco data to support the dollar.

DAX 6 Month Outlook 2016 H2 (18-Aug-2016    at   07:12:22 pm)

DAX 6 Month Outlook 2016 H2

What impact has Brexit had on Germany?

It's still too early to determine what the economic impact of Brexit will be on Germany and the eurozone on the whole for that matter both in the near-term and beyond. On the one hand, the U.K.

AUD/USD Australian Dollar 6 Month Outlook 2016 2H (02-Aug-2016    at   08:28:41 pm)

The RBA seems to be little concerned by Brexit and believes it's far too soon to pass judgment on the effect of the 'leave' Europe June vote on the U.K economy, implying that a weaker sterling (down -11% since June 23) could temper the economic fallout. The RBA's Governor Stevens

WTI Crude Oil A Year Ahead - Trends And Expectations 2016 (24-Dec-2015    at   04:45:54 pm)

The second half of 2014 saw a sharp drop in the price of WTI Crude Oil, which had traded at $105 a barrel in July. By January 1, 2015, the price of crude had fallen by almost 50%, to $54.45 a barrel. Oil prices rebounded in April, reaching a high

DAX Year Ahead – Trends And Expectations 2016 (24-Dec-2015    at   04:11:58 pm)

It has been another testing year for the German economy but once again it has shown the kind of strong resilience that it has become synonymous with throughout the global financial and eurozone debt crises. The first half of the year in the eurozone was dominated by questions over whether

British Pound Year Ahead - Brexit To Dominate 2016 (22-Dec-2015    at   05:49:01 pm)

This has been something of a turnaround year for the UK in which unemployment has fallen back to pre-financial crisis levels, wage growth has accelerated and falling energy and food prices have supported a strong consumer driven recovery. Growth has cooled a little in 2015 after peaking at 3.2% in the

Gold for Bear Market? (13-Oct-2015    at   06:23:40 pm)

A "bear market" is frequently defined as a decline of at least 20% in the S&P 500 index. Trouble is that by the time pundits provide their seal of approval that we are indeed in a bear market, the index has already lost 20% from its peak. Many of them

Euro Area Outlook for 2015: Impact of Broad-Based QE (17-Jan-2015    at   08:46:02 am)

The expected ECB QE programme will support economic activity through a number of channels and hence it strengthens our view of a stronger recovery. A very important part of a large scale QE programme would be the signal that the ECB is committed to its mandate as this supports inflation expectations. Government

When Will the Bank of England Hike Rates? (16-Aug-2014    at   01:33:48 pm)

In the first report of a two-part series on the outlook for Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy, we discuss the timing of the expected first rate hike since 2007. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has explicitly pledged not to hike rates until spare capacity is more fully absorbed. Not

Growth in China Appears to Be Stabilizing (19-Jul-2014    at   01:05:10 pm)

The year-over-year rate of real GDP growth in China edged up to 7.5 percent in Q2 from 7.4 percent in Q1. Modest relaxation in credit restrictions in recent months led to some stabilization in investment spending growth. We look for the rate of real GDP growth in China to edge

FX Forecast Update: Negative Rates and Liquidity Tools to Weaken the Euro (14-Jun-2014    at   08:24:43 am)

The ECB delivered more easing than expected at its rate meeting in June by cutting both the refi and deposit rates by 10bp, the latter into negative territory, and introduced a four-year targeted LTRO (TLTRO). While it remains uncertain how much excess liquidity will be boosted by the new LTRO,

AUD/USD - 2013 In Review (02-Jan-2014    at   07:25:12 am)

The Australian dollar is known for its strong volatility, and taking traders on roller coaster rides, and the currency certainly didn't disappoint in 2013. The Aussie started the year close to the 1.04 level and looked great in early January, climbing just short of the 1.06 line. The currency lost about

USD/CAD - 2013 In Review (02-Jan-2014    at   07:23:26 am)

The Canadian dollar looked sharp as we began 2013, but struggled badly late in the year, as the currency lost about five cents against the US dollar in Q4. The Canadian currency began the year close to the parity level, but tumbled to three-year lows in December, as USD/CAD broke

USD/JPY - 2013 In Review (26-Dec-2013    at   07:31:59 am)

The Bank of Japan continued its radical monetary program in 2013, and the yen responded with sharp losses against the US dollar, as the slumping Japanese currency finds itself trading at five-year lows. The BOJ's monetary platform consists of increasing its monetary base and asset purchase (QE) programs. The BOJ

GBP/USD - 2013 In Review (26-Dec-2013    at   07:30:08 am)

The Bank of England revised its growth forecast for 2013 to 1.6%, up from 1.4% in a previous forecast. The BOE is predicting growth in 2014 of 2.8%. Inflation remains well above the central bank's target of 2%. The forecast for 2013 is a level of 2.6%. This is expected

EUR/USD - 2013 in Review (25-Dec-2013    at   06:46:53 pm)

The ECB is expecting better news in 2014, with the Eurozone economy expected to post growth of 1%. Inflation is projected to remain week, with an estimate of 1.3%. So we can expect interest rates to remain low for the foreseeable future, as ECB head Mario Draghi has stated at

Global Currencies Forecast: 2014 (10-Dec-2013    at   05:21:04 pm)

More than five years after the onset of the Great Recession, consistent global growth remains elusive, prompting central banks to stick with artificially low interest rates while pumping an unprecedented infusion of cash into the financial system. As they search for new ways to stimulate liquidity to augment the stimulus measures

The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy Part III: An Analysis of ... (26-Oct-2013    at   08:25:22 am)

In part three of our four part series we explore the long-run trends in federal debt and the annual budget deficits that lead to the accumulation of federal debt through the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) current forecast horizon of 2088. We begin with a brief history of federal deficits and

The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy Part II: An Analysis of ... (10-Oct-2013    at   08:08:54 pm)

In its latest Long-Term Budget Outlook, the Congressional Budget Office concludes that the future path of federal spending is "unsustainable." In part two of our four-part series on the unsustainable path of federal fiscal policy, we explore the ongoing trends in federal spending and focus on the key drivers of

The Unsustainable Path of Federal Fiscal Policy Part I: Federal Revenue Projections and ... (08-Oct-2013    at   09:38:43 am)

Recently, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its latest Long-Term Budget Outlook, which this year again highlights the fact that federal fiscal policy continues along an unsustainable path. In this first of a series of reports on the unsustainable path of federal fiscal policy, we provide an analysis and discussion

Life After Ben: Choosing the Next Fed Chair (28-Aug-2013    at   09:08:33 pm)

The biggest question on monetary policy for the years ahead is, who will be the next Federal Reserve chairman? More importantly, who is best qualified to normalize policy without disrupting the current pace of economic growth and financial stability? The clear choice is Chairman Ben Bernanke, who nursed an ailing

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